"Deterrence": Just Thoughts and Prayers with Nukes?
Playing Chicken with North Korea (and China) This whole thing is supposedly about deterring North Korea and China. Deterrence, deterrence, deterrence. We hear that word so much it's lost all meaning. It's like saying "thoughts and prayers" after a mass shooting – it sounds nice, but does it actually *do* anything? The article I'm reading claims that a one-sided emphasis on military deterrence can be counterproductive, causing greater North Korean and Chinese military assertiveness. No freakin' duh! It's like poking a bear with a stick and then acting surprised when it tries to bite your head off. They're talking about how the US, Japan, and South Korea are relying on strike capabilities and military coordination to retaliate against North Korean aggression. But guess what? North Korea ain't exactly known for backing down. They're more likely to double down on their nuclear weapons program and upgrade their missile capabilities. It's a vicious cycle, and we're just making it worse. And get this: Seoul has adopted an explicit preemptive strike posture against North Korea. Seriously? Are we trying to start World War III? Preemptive strike? That's just asking for trouble. It's like saying, "Hey, we're going to attack you before you attack us, just in case you were thinking about it." How is that supposed to de-escalate the situation? Then again, maybe I'm missing something. Maybe all this saber-rattling will actually work. But let's be real, when has that *ever* worked?Taiwan: The "Elephant" We're All Pretending Not to See?
Taiwan: The Elephant in the Room (That Everyone's Ignoring) And then there's Taiwan. Oh boy. This whole trilateral partnership also risks provoking greater Chinese military coercion by overlooking the importance of reassurance for deterrence on the Taiwan issue. Reassurance? What reassurance? The US, Japan, and South Korea are all walking back their commitments to their respective "One China" policies. The US is all about strategic competition with China, and some folks in Washington think keeping Taiwan separated from China at any cost is essential for regional stability. Give me a break. And Japan? They're reluctant to even mention the notion of "One China" anymore. They're expanding their political and military engagement with Taiwan. It's like they're deliberately trying to poke the bear... again! And what about South Korea? They're endorsing their "One China" policy in an increasingly less formal and less public manner. They even invited a Taiwanese official to deliver a video speech at some summit in Seoul. Seriously? offcourse, China isn't going to like that. All this rhetorical backtracking and de-emphasis on their "One China" policies could undermine deterrence. It could signal to Beijing that this whole trilateral thing is part of a larger strategy intended to ensure Taiwan's permanent separation from China. And if China believes that, they're gonna get even more aggressive.New Axis of Evil? More Like a Clusterf*ck Waiting to Happen
Russia, North Korea, and China: A New Axis of Evil? But wait, there's more! As North Korea and China view this tightening Japan–U.S.–South Korea military partnership as posing greater challenges to their core interests, North Korea and China could enhance their security ties and even pursue a trilateral strategic partnership with Russia. Great. Just what we need: a new axis of evil. There's a historical precedent for this, you know. Back in the Cold War, China, North Korea, and Russia were all buddies, cooperating against the West. And with the US-China rivalry and the Ukraine War, their need for cooperation is only increasing. China's been more tolerant of North Korea lately. They're less willing to support punitive measures against North Korean provocations. Beijing may now be more willing to tolerate Pyongyang’s nuclear ambition and might even eventually partner with a nuclear North Korea in a confrontation against the United States and its regional allies. Are you kidding me? The emergence of a Russia–North Korea–China trilateral alignment will no doubt further destabilize northeast Asia’s security environment and intensify regional tensions. According to Japan drags down Asian coordination and global growth, Japan's actions are not helping the situation. So, What's the Real Story? Look, this whole US-Japan-South Korea alliance sounds good on paper, but it's a disaster waiting to happen. It's provocative, it's escalatory, and it's based on a flawed understanding of how deterrence actually works. We're poking bears, walking back commitments, and creating new enemies. It ain't gonna end well.
